TREND SCOUTING - Anticipating the Future of Pharma

INTRODUCTION

Innovation in today’s world moves at a fast pace. Various in­dustries are experiencing unprecedented growth, and pharma and biotech are no exception. The global pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) market is expected to grow from $161 billion US to $322 billion US from 2023 to 2033.¹ Total reported R&D spend has increased from $139 billion in 2022 to $145 billion in 2023, an increase of 4.5%.² This immense growth across the industry indicates a need for CDMOs to proactively invest in the tools, technologies and process optimization which will shape pharmaceutical manufac­turing in the coming years.

With the constant evolution of the biopharmaceutical indus­try, companies need to maintain their competitive edge to succeed in the market. Outsourcing partners in particular need to make sure their service portfolios address shifting customer needs and remain at the forefront of the industry. A large part of this is adapting a forward-thinking mindset to consistently innovate and predict potential solutions in time before customers want to ad­dress new challenges.

By implementing a strategic, considerate, and proactive ap­proach to trend forecasting, pharmaceutical service providers can effectively weigh the benefits and challenges of potential trends, invest in those most aligned with customer needs, and avoid the allocation of time and resources in trends that will not provide meaningful return on investment (ROI). Let’s explore the devel­opment of reliable trend scouting processes through tried-and-true methods.

INFORMATION-DRIVEN PREDICTIONS

Service providers can sustain a holistic view of emerging trends by scouting ahead. This is an important approach for sur­veying, analyzing, and implementing the latest in components, technologies, and methodology to meet future and evolving cus­tomer needs. As, for example, new devices or substance classes, to name a few, emerge and gain popularity, the needs of the market will change. This makes trend scouting a critical skill to acquire the foresight to proactively innovate and maintain rele­vance and resilience in today’s market.

Globally operating CDMOs have large customer bases of biopharma companies that have nuanced requirements and products. Scouting and tracking industry trends allows outsourc­ing partners to collect valuable information from drug owners that can inform decision-making to implement the required in­frastructure, devices, substances and more.

That said, trend scouting can be a cumbersome process. The life science industry has innately special requirements for the im­plementation of new methods due to regulations and required risk management. With patient safety the top priority for manu­facturing partners, trends don’t emerge and permeate as quickly as they do in other industries. Substantial time and resources are required to implement the most relevant trends. Comprehensive practices help prevent a service partner from missing any crucial topic and allow the focus to remain on getting ahead of lengthy implementation timelines.

UNDERSTANDING THE VALUE OF TREND SCOUTING

Trend scouting highlights the importance of evaluating com­prehensive market needs, rather than single customer needs, to make careful use of available resources, and is a key element of a holistic risk management system. Today, how trends evolve can somewhat be unpredictable and may change frequently. For ex­ample, as biopharma companies plan to introduce drug products to market in novel devices like wearable on-body-injectors, they might find a lack of adequate reimburse­ment for drug delivery systems. While the tried-and-true system of drug delivery has established proper reimbursement prac­tices, new system products are more likely to be reimbursed if they offer a significant improvement in patient treatment out­comes.

Emerging topics may rise and fall, sometimes disappearing for a while only to re-emerge later with fresh enthusiasm. CDMOs understand the importance of dedicating significant time and resources to monitoring trends to create solutions that address future customer needs yet avoid straining resources prematurely. However, because it can take years for fill and finish partners to address new ideas in the industry, it’s essential to look beyond the short term and focus on long-term trends when evaluating trend risk man­agement.

By conducting a comprehensive trend tracking, the companies can benefit from becoming early adopters of emerging trends by integrating new technologies and methods into their supply chain long before they become the industry standard. Implementing new and trending practices to address future customer needs can lead to marketability in a competitive industry. Staying on trend can entice new customers to partner with you. The ability to strategi­cally adopt elements of a new trend allows a biopharma service provider to become a leading voice in the market and cultivate trust in their expertise from customers. However, when a company is slow to adapt to a new trend or misses a potential trend in their scouting that ends up pan­ning out, they can fall behind in the mar­ket and lose out on customer relationships.

HOW TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL PROMISING TRENDS

CDMOs are well advised to keep an eye on the biopharma industry. Monitoring for potential trends can be crucial as the first step in the trend tracking process to enhance operations and offer valuable ca­pabilities to customers.

Before investing in a technology or method in response to a potential trend, it may be beneficial to conduct thorough as­sessment of its potential value and risks. Adoption of any new trend or technology needs to support existing quality standards and current Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP). The key to successful trend scout­ing can be optimizing the flow of informa­tion from every channel and outlet. The trend scouting team can absorb informa­tion from sessions and discussions at con­ferences and trade shows, as well as from academic journals, new datasets and stud­ies, evaluations of new technologies, and conversations with customers.

By systematically comparing trends against one another and in the context of their area of focus, they can create a truly comprehensive trend radar to predict the future of the market and derive the re­quired action from the most relevant trends. This tool, which is used across dif­ferent departments and overseen by man­agement to identify, monitor and evaluate potential trends, involves grouping poten­tial trends into distinct categories. Experts in different departments look at various areas in the industry to monitor trends on several topics and make thoughtful recom­mendations for a path forward.

The potential trends are then ranked by experts based on their current relevance and predicted applicability for the future. Often, experts try to find topics that might become the new industry standard. For ex­ample, large volume autoinjectors have become a competing trend for on-body wearable injectors as the call for solutions to meet the rising customer need for self-administered injectables at a higher dosage increases.

Throughout the trend evaluation process, it may be helpful to maintain a balance of qualitative and quantitative re­search. We employ various methods to ob­tain and confirm information about emerging trends. For example, desk re­search with market reports from respected sources and new regulation and authority feedback provide valuable quantitative re­search. On the other hand, customer and partner interviews as well as conferences and trade shows offer important qualita­tive findings. Together, the various sources of qualitative and quantitative research contribute to trend tracking efforts.

The trend tracking process should be ongoing and consistent to account for any shifts and changes in the market. Out­sourcing partners can then use these in­sights to inform customers of the latest and most promising trends to help them make crucial implementation decisions regard­ing their devices and substances.

THE IMPACT OF SUCCESSFUL TREND FORECASTING

Trend scouting enables manufactur­ing partners to adjust practices and processes to relevant trends in a timely manner. By implementing new methods to adapt to the right trends, CDMOs can maintain their competitive edge against other pharmaceutical service providers in the long run. In our experience, trend fore­casting throughout the company’s history has proven valuable in contributing to long-term success.

When prefilled syringes first entered the market in the mid-20th century, it marked a significant advancement in global injectable technology. Vetter recog­nized early on that patient-friendliness would be the trend of the future, which is why the company focused on prefilled sy­ringes as early as the 1970s. Vetter was well prepared when prefilled syringes be­came the new standard. The company led the emergence and growth of this trend by introducing the original idea of a prefilled syringe, which became a core element in drug production during that decade. In 1984, Vetter sought to get ahead of the industry trend and introduced the first dual-chamber syringe. Today, advanced prefilled syringes remain a market stan­dard.

Vetter is continuing to lead the in­jectable market with its early investment in a new trend: ready-to-use vials and car­tridges. The company is tracking the trend closely and dedicating a new clean room for the prefilled syringe-equivalent of vials. By installing an increasing amount of flex­ible equipment, CDMOs can process pri­mary packaging types in various shapes, sizes and yearly volumes consistent with how the industry evolves. Remaining flexi­ble can be important as trend scouting can sometimes lack precision in its predictions.

Trend scouting and tracking is neces­sary to monitor trends constantly and with proper care. Using the right resources and employing appropriate time management may be beneficial in trend forecasting to help companies know which trends are the most critical to implement. As CDMOs’ ability to first meet future customer needs becomes more competitive, the capacity to perform extensive trend scouting will be in­strumental in anticipating evolving market needs. A holistic approach is needed to provide the best possible trend forecasting that spans the entire industry, engaging in interdepartmental conversations and mon­itoring to create a comprehensive picture of the market.

The future of the biopharmaceutical industry is bright, as the global market continues to grow and evolve. By leverag­ing all available sources of information, understanding the value of trend scouting, and developing a comprehensive trend radar system, CDMOs can be prepared for industry shifts far enough in advance to adapt accordingly.

 REFERENCES

1. Mikulic, M. (2024) “CDMO market size worldwide forecast 2023-2033.” Statista.
2. Dondarski, K, et al. (2024) “Unleash AI’s potential. Measuring the re­turn from pharmaceutical innovation – 14th edition.” Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/life-sciences-health-care/us-rd-roi-14th-edition.pdf.

Gregor Deutschle serves as the Director Product and Service Management at Vetter since 2021. In this role, he leads a team responsible for matching Vetter’s product and service offering with the demand of the biopharmaceutical market and evolving the portfolio according to the latest industry trends. Prior to joining the independent CDMO, he worked in several roles over the past 16 years, most of them in the biopharma industry. He started his career by earning a degree in mechanical engineering from RWTH Aachen University in 2008.